Summer Outlook

Sources: Climate Central and Climate Preiction Center

TEMPERATURE

Nearly the entire nation is enshrouded in red or orange, meaning warmer-than-average temperatures are expected for June, July and August. NOAA said areas where the unusual heat is most likely include the Northeast and a large swath of the West. The Weather Company also predicts warmer-than-average conditions for much of the country this summer.

Summer Temperatures

NOAA said there are signs in long-range models and climate trends that summer 2024 could end up being one of the hottest summers on record. The two hottest summers in the U.S. were in 2021 and in 1936.

As an example of the warming Summers, below is a graph of the Summer heating trend in Chicago IL.

Chicago Heating Trend

PRECIPITATION

Forecasts also show that while a soggy summer could be in store for much of the Eastern Seaboard, a drier-than-average summer can be expected across most of the Plains and Rockies. Combined with the heat, that could exacerbate drought and wildfires across the West.

Summer Precipitation

The Heat is On

Summer 2023 was Earth's hottest on record (since 1850) and likely the hottest in the last 2,000 years. The planet's record heat streak, which began in June 2023, has continued well into 2024. April 2024 marked 11 consecutive months of record-breaking global temperatures. NOAA's latest projections gave 2024 a 61% chance of beating 2023 as the warmest year on record.

To understand how the summer season has changed locally as the planet has warmed, Climate Central analyzed the last 54 years (1970-2023) of summer (June, July, and August) average temperature data in 241 U.S. locations.