2025 Hurricane Forecasts
IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT FUTURE FORECASTS FROM NOAA AND NWS
With only one month until the official start of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, the National Weather Service (NWS) is in worse shape than previously known, according to interviews with current and former meteorologists, due to a combination of layoffs, early retirements and preexisting vacancies. NWS is the U.S. government's official weather forecasting agency, operating under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a U.S. government agency under the Department of Commerce. It provides crucial weather alerts, forecasts, and climate data to help protect lives and property
NWS is scrambling to restructure the agency in accordance with guidance from the Trump administration's so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Roughly 6% of employees at the already short-staffed NWS were either terminated or took deferred resignations in the first round of cuts in late February. While many of the terminated employees at NOAA - including flight directors from the famed hurricane hunters - have been reinstated since, most remain on paid administrative leave, with no timeline on when they might return to work.
Forecast offices safeguarding hurricane-prone coastal areas remain widely understaffed. The full extent of the DOGE-directed cuts across NOAA and the broader NWS is still unclear, but according to government-circulated memos, additional restructuring and further large-scale reductions in force are possible before the start of hurricane season.
Internally, forecasters are increasingly concerned that the indiscriminate cuts and significant staffing reductions will impede their ability to access critical data and issue timely warnings to the public. Already, about a dozen NWS offices have announced temporary suspensions of critical twice-daily weather balloon launches - a mainstay of the NWS for over 60 years - due to staffing shortages. The information collected from weather balloons has been shown to dramatically improve the accuracy of forecasts, so much so that during major hurricane threats, it's common practice for the NWS to supplement twice-daily launches with up to four launches per day at key locations.
Several of the platforms the NWS uses to routinely issue life-saving watches and warnings are supported or maintained by pricey private contracts, which will now require the approval of the Secretary of Commerce who oversees NOAA and the NWS. Some have expressed concern that the additional level of scrutiny may slow or stop the renewal of key contracts, including the procurement of new hurricane hunter aircraft or the 1,000-plus dropsonde instruments they launch each year, instruments which have been shown to improve hurricane forecasts by as much as 15 to 20%.
Recovery from hurricane impacts may also be impacted by the Trump administration cuts to the Federal Emergency Management Agengy (FEMA), a U.S. govenment agency under the Department of Homeland Security. See this article on potential cuts to FEMA. Recently, the Trump administration denied Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders' request for individual and public assistance following an outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes which damaged or destroyed 500 homes, cars and businesses, leaving behind more than $8.8 million of storm damage.
Atmospheric G2 and The Weather Company - 16 April 2025
We expect 19 storms to form in 2025, nine of which will become hurricanes and four of which will reach Category 3 status or stronger, according to the outlook. That's above the 30-year average tally for both hurricanes and storms. It's just a couple of hurricanes shy of 2024's total of 11 hurricanes. The AG2/TWC team is forecasting three hurricanes to make a U.S. landfall in 2025, two less than did so during the destructive 2024 hurricane season.
North Carolina State University - 15 April 2025
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will see 12 to 15 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin, according to researchers at North Carolina State University. The Atlantic basin includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.
The number of named storms predicted is in line with recent averages, according to Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at NC State. The long-term (1951 to 2023) average of named storms is 11, and the more recent average (1994 to 2024) is 15 named storms. Of the predicted 12 to 15 named storms, six to eight may grow strong enough to become hurricanes (the historical average is six), with the possibility of two to three storms becoming major hurricanes.
Tropical Storm Risk (Euro Tempest) - 7 April 2025
The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) April forecast update for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2025 anticipates a season with activity close to the 1991-2020 climate norm. Although there is significant uncertainty at this lead time, we consider that the more likely scenario is for tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea waters to be near or slightly above normal by August-September 2025, and for neutral ENSO conditions to be present through summer and autumn 2025. These two factors are both expected to have a neutral influence on the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season.
Weatherbell Analytics LLC - 7 April 2025
The 2025 Hurricane Season should have fewer impacts than 2024. Unlike last year, there are currently no clear landfall signals. An El Nino may develop, but likely won't be a huge factor if it does.
Colorado State University Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling, and Software Team - 3 April 2025
CSU anticipates that the 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral (or potential La Nina) conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. CSU anticipates an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.
The Climate Adaption Center - 1 April 2025
The Climate Adaption Center is predicting another active year, with only a slight decrease in the number of Named Storms and Hurricanes compared to 2024 - and the same number of Major Hurricanes. Below-average wind shear is predicted for 2025, creating a favorable environment for storm development. Average mid-level moisture levels, combined with less Saharan dust than in 2024, will also contribute to increased storm formation. Rapid Intensification ("RI") is a major risk again this year. RI can, and often does, happen close to the coast, making the threat even more dangerous. With climate warming, the lead time for preventive action may be short.
And one more thing, the National Hurricane Center has updated its baseline for average Atlantic hurricane season activity from the 1981-2010 period to 1991-2020. This change reflects a rising trend, increasing the average number of named storms from 12 to 14.
AccuWeather - 26 March 2025
The Atlantic hurricane season is fast approaching, and early indications have forecasters worried that it will have similarities to the 2024 season, which was one of the most devastating and costliest on record. Water temperatures across the ocean, as well as in the Gulf and Caribbean, are already well above historical averages, and they will continue to run warm throughout most of the year. This will prime storms for explosive development.
Meteorologists gauge an entire season by analyzing accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). This measures the combined intensity of every tropical system throughout the season, with weak, short-lived storms producing little ACE while powerful, long-lived hurricanes generating a high amount. For the 2025 hurricane season, AccuWeather is predicting an ACE of 125 to 175, above the 30-year historical average of 123, and around the level measured during the 2024 season.