2024 Hurricane Forecast from NOAA - 8 August 2024 Update

NOAA's outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 90% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season. NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.

This is the greatest number of storms NOAA has ever predicted in a season outlook. The "extraordinary" above-normal activity is due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.

2024 Hurricane Forecast from Colorado State University - 9 July 2024

We have slightly increased our forecast and continue to call for an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the hurricane Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean remain near record warm levels. Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. We anticipate cool neutral ENSO or La Nina during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, resulting in reduced levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. This forecast is of above-normal confidence. We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.

2024 Hurricane Forecast from MyRadar - 31 May 2024

MyRadar released its first annual tropical outlook ahead of Atlantic hurricane season. This year's 62% increase in average Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) indicates a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season similar to the historical 2020 season.

2024 Hurricane Forecast from The Weather Channel - 16 May 2024

The new outlook released by The Weather Channel calls for an increase of one named storm and one hurricane from their previous outlook. In a complete flip compared to last season, a stronger high-pressure system is expected to set up shop near Bermuda and the Azores, which should deflect more storms westward toward the Caribbean and the United States. This combination of more storms and this pattern will lead to more storms nearing coastlines.

Here is a link to the report.

2024 Hurricane Forecast from AEM - 15 May 2024

This year will showcase the powerful combination of the typical decrease in wind shear associated with La Nina and extremely warm Atlantic Ocean Sea surface temperatures. The addition of a strong West Africa Monsoon could enhance hurricane activity too, providing frequent, robust tropical waves moving into the Atlantic Main Development region. These factors all favor a very active hurricane season.

Here is a link to the full report.

2024 Hurricane Forecast from TSR EuroTempest Ltd - 8 April 2024

There is high confidence that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane activity season will be very active. There is high confidence that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic will be much warmer than average which is an enhancing effect for hurricane activity. Sea surface temperatures across much of the Atlantic Ocean have been well above average for several months and there is currently no indication these sea surface temperature anomalies will cool significantly, if at all, over the Spring.