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Forecast Discussion for Albuquerque, NM
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522 FXUS65 KABQ 201721 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1121 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1106 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2025 - Patches of dense fog and late season freezing temperatures will impact portions of central and eastern New Mexico this morning. - Warm and breezy conditions across the Northeast Plains of NM on Monday afternoon will bring back the threat of rapid fire spread. - Warmer and drier weather returns early this week with the potential for a few thunderstorms across eastern NM from Tuesday onward, especially near the TX border. Storms may increase in coverage across eastern NM by the end of the week and into the weekend. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 307 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Warmer and drier conditions are forecast today behind a departing winter storm system, but temperatures will remain below average. A warming and drying trend will then continue through mid week for most areas, with temperatures rising above average. Breezy to locally windy conditions will prevail across eastern NM Monday afternoon, but otherwise winds will be much lower this week compared to the past few weeks. Gulf moisture will move into eastern NM and lead to chances for thunderstorms beginning Tuesday near the TX border. Chances for storms will trend up some by late week and into the weekend across eastern NM as a disturbance approaches from the west and a weak cold front backs into eastern NM. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 307 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2025 In the wake of an upper level low pressure system that recently produced widespread wetting precipitation over northwest, west central, central and east central parts of the forecast area, patchy fog and low clouds are forecast until mid morning. Skies will clear by midday, and high temperatures this afternoon will climb around 7- 17 degrees above Saturday`s readings. Readings will still vary from near to around 13 degrees below 1991-2020 averages. Temperatures will climb another 8-15 degrees on Monday, causing highs to climb near to 9 degrees above 30-year averages. Some of the warmest readings on Monday will be over the northeast plains, where humidities will plummet, and a surface trough will develop south of a 1000 mb surface low in southeast CO. Wind gusts around 35-40 mph with the very dry conditions look to create critical fire weather conditions across the northeast plains Monday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 307 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Backing westerly flow aloft with weak troughing west of the area will allow Gulf moisture to advect into far eastern NM late Monday night into Tuesday, leading to low chances for late day storms near the TX border. Any severe threat late Tuesday will be further east over the TX Panhandle where richer Gulf moisture and greater instability will reside. Otherwise, high temperatures will rise above average all areas Tuesday, with dry and warm conditions across all of central and western NM. The flow aloft will back to the southwest and increase a touch on Wednesday, which may bring better chances for storms into eastern NM. However, there is a stronger signal for storms across eastern NM toward the end of the week and into the weekend with a more notable upper level trough/low on approach and a backdoor front moving into eastern NM. For now, will refrain from getting too deep into the weeds on severe potential late week, but western NM will likely remain warm and dry. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1106 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2025 Much quieter weather conditions will prevail during the next 24 hours. With that said, gusty northwest winds can be expected for the corridor stretching from the northwest plateau to the Jemez, southern Sangre de Cristos, Sandia/Manzano Mountains through the central highlands during the afternoon. Latest satellite imagery depicts significant melting of snow. At this time, confidence in the development of overnight fog/freezing fog is rather low from KLVS-KCQC. The limiting factor is that boundary layer moisture could very well evaporate this afternoon given dry, gusty winds. Areal extent of deep snow cover is a bit more robust across the Estancia Valley and central highlands (KCQC). Models struggle in these microscale scenarios, but will note the HREF depicts a 10% or lower probability of occurrence. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 307 AM MDT Sun Apr 20 2025 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET... After a late season freeze in many lower elevation locations this morning, high temperatures will warm and humidities will trend downward today and Monday. Humidities will fall near and below 15 percent in lower elevation locations Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, a surface trough south of a 1000 mb surface low over southeast CO will produce wind gusts in the 35-40 mph range Monday afternoon east of I- 25. The area from Harding County northward received little or no rain from the recent storm system, so we with this forecast package we will issue a Fire Weather Watch for Monday across the Northeast Plains. Locally critical fire weather condtions are also forecast across eastern parts of the Northeast Highlands Monday. The dryline will slosh in and out of the eastern plains each night and day Tuesday through Thursday with dryline thunderstorms. Models are still struggling to agree on when a moist backdoor front will plunge southwestward through the eastern half of the forecast area late week with the operational runs of the latest deterministic models delaying the arrival until Thursday night and Friday. Moisture with front will spread potentially wetting thunderstorms over north central areas and along and east of the central mountain chain Friday and Saturday, and potentially as early as Thursday if the front arrives that early. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 62 33 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 58 21 66 27 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 55 27 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 59 21 69 26 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 57 28 67 34 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 61 25 71 29 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 58 28 71 35 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 63 37 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 59 32 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 68 27 75 32 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 72 35 79 36 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 51 22 59 29 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 55 35 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 56 32 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 29 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 43 24 52 29 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 49 18 58 24 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 56 23 65 29 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 55 27 66 33 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 64 31 72 37 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 56 35 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 32 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 62 42 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 38 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 36 77 43 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 38 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 68 32 78 40 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 65 36 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 67 33 77 39 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 66 36 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 68 34 77 39 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 60 39 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 65 37 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 72 39 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 55 35 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 57 36 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 55 30 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 22 69 31 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 51 30 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 59 31 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 59 33 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 64 39 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 58 37 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 56 31 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 63 28 72 33 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 64 29 73 33 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 58 29 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 65 37 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 63 33 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 69 37 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 62 36 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 66 38 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 66 42 78 49 / 5 0 0 5 Portales........................ 68 40 80 47 / 0 0 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 67 38 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 76 43 85 51 / 0 0 0 5 Picacho......................... 71 39 81 44 / 0 0 0 5 Elk............................. 69 37 79 43 / 0 0 0 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for NMZ104. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...46 Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated by the end of April. |
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