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Forecast Discussion for Albuquerque, NM
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794 FXUS65 KABQ 062121 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 221 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1257 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026 - Hazardous crosswinds and critical fire weather conditions will continue until 6 PM this evening east of the central mountain chain with a risk of rapid fire spread. The risk of rapid fire spread is forecast to return to northeast and east central areas on Sunday. - Wet roads will probably develop in some locations south of Highway 60 Monday night through Tuesday evening, with a roughly 40 percent chance of a few inches of snow accumulation above 8,500 feet in elevation. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1257 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026 Wind speeds will weaken with sunset as the tail end of a speed maximum aloft exits east of NM, and surface temperature inversions set up. An exception will be on the eastern plains, where a gusty backdoor cold front will plunge southward overnight with gusts up to 40 mph over northeast and east central areas, then up to 35 mph over southeast areas late tonight into Saturday morning. East canyon wind gusts up to 35 mph are also forecast in Carrizozo Saturday morning, with a brief period of east canyon wind gusts up to 30 mph as far north as Albuquerque. Otherwise, dry and less gusty conditions are forecast as Saturday progresses. In the wake of the backdoor cold front, high temperatures on the eastern plains will fall up to 11 degrees below todays readings, while temperatures climb a few to 6 degrees over western areas. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1257 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026 Ensemble cluster analysis continues to show models are in good agreement on a cut-off upper level low pressure system off the central Baja CA coast ejecting east and/or northeastward on Monday. The system is forecast to draw a modest combination of elevated Pacific moisture and low level Gulf moisture over southern NM with rain showers, mountains snow showers, and some thunderstorms mostly over the southern half of the forecast area late Monday through Tuesday evening. At this time, rain amounts only look to reach up to a tenth of an inch over southern parts of the forecast area, except up to a quarter inch of rain and liquid equivalent accumulation over the southern tier of mountains (equating to a few inches of snow above 8500 feet). Some models suggest the upper low may open into a trough and shift northeastward across east central and northeast New Mexico on Tuesday, potentially spreading accumulating precip farther north across the eastern plains. After warming temperatures areawide on Monday, when highs will reach around 7-20 F above 1991-2020 averages, readings will fall a few to several degrees over southern and eastern areas with the clouds and precip Tuesday. A backdoor cold front will drop high temperatures over eastern areas a few to 15 degrees on Wednesday, but temperatures will rebound on Thursday under dry northwest flow aloft. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026 Scattered snow showers and occasional mountain obscurations will continue through this evening near the CO border. Otherwise, strong west and northwest winds will gradually weaken toward sunset this afternoon as a temperature inversion begins to set up and the tail end of a jetmax aloft exits to the east. An exception will be on the eastern plains, where a backdoor cold front will produce a north and northeast wind shift with wind gusts up to 35 KT late this evening through tonight, then up to 30 KT Saturday morning over southeast areas. East canyon wind gusts up to 30 KT are also likely in Carrizozo Saturday morning, and there may be a brief period of 25 KT gusts below canyons opening into the central valley as far north as Albuquerque. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1257 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026 After weaker winds this weekend, a lee-side surface trough will return gusty downslope flow to northeast and east central areas Sunday and Monday with single digit humidities and an increasing risk of critical fire weather conditions both days. Current forecast grids depict greater coverage of critical conditions over northeast areas Sunday than Monday, but a surface low over the northeast corner of NM is forecast to drop from ~1000 mb on Sunday to around 997 mb on Monday, suggesting Monday could be as windy or windier than Sunday. A mitigating factor for the winds would be high cloud cover that ejects ahead of the aforementioned Baja low, but models don`t generally depict that much high clouds reaching eastern NM by Monday afternoon. We will update the afternoon FWF to issue a Fire Weather Watch for the northeast and east central areas on Sunday, and let the night shift re-evaluate Monday`s wind speeds. The focus for stronger winds on Tuesday looks to shift south of the fire weather forecast area on Tuesday, while humidities trend upward across most of the forecast area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 24 53 25 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 13 52 15 58 / 10 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 19 51 23 59 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 15 53 17 63 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 22 51 25 61 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 17 54 19 65 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 20 55 24 64 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 27 54 32 63 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 22 51 28 61 / 0 0 0 5 Reserve......................... 19 60 24 69 / 0 0 0 5 Glenwood........................ 22 65 29 74 / 0 0 0 5 Chama........................... 13 45 17 52 / 20 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 26 50 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 20 52 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 19 48 25 57 / 10 0 0 0 Red River....................... 13 39 21 48 / 20 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 7 46 14 53 / 10 0 0 0 Taos............................ 15 51 16 61 / 5 0 0 0 Mora............................ 17 53 24 61 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 20 58 22 68 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 25 52 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 22 54 26 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 32 58 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 29 59 33 68 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 27 62 30 71 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 30 59 32 69 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 25 61 25 70 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 28 60 30 69 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 24 61 25 70 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 28 60 30 70 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 26 61 27 70 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 30 55 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 29 60 31 69 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 30 64 33 71 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 25 53 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 27 54 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 22 55 26 63 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 17 56 20 66 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 20 51 26 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 22 56 27 64 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 24 56 28 65 / 0 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 30 60 34 68 / 0 0 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 28 53 32 61 / 0 0 0 10 Capulin......................... 17 51 21 63 / 30 0 0 0 Raton........................... 17 54 18 67 / 30 0 0 0 Springer........................ 19 57 18 69 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 18 53 25 65 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 26 56 31 71 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 22 55 25 69 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 25 61 28 76 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 25 57 27 71 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 27 61 30 76 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 32 62 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 31 63 29 74 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 27 61 26 73 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 35 63 33 72 / 0 0 0 5 Picacho......................... 30 58 31 70 / 0 0 0 5 Elk............................. 28 59 29 69 / 0 0 0 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 4 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ221-223-226- 229>234-240. Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for NMZ104-123-125- 126. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NMZ104-123-126. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...44 |
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