703
FXUS65 KABQ 171038
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
338 AM MST Fri Jan 17 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 313 AM MST Fri Jan 17 2025

- An upper level disturbance will bring breezy to windy conditions
  Friday, focusing across central, east central, and south central
  NM where occasional gusts of 45 to 60 mph will occur.

- An arctic cold front will arrive Saturday along with frigid
  temperatures and a round of light to moderate snow (1 to 6
  inches). Snowfall will lead to slick and icy roadways,
  particularly along I-25 near Raton Pass where higher amounts
  will create hazardous driving conditions. Frigid temperatures
  will last into Sunday.

- A second and stronger arctic cold front will arrive Monday with
  even colder air and additional light snow. Portions of eastern
  New Mexico will likely remain below freezing for 3 to 4
  consecutive days with bitter wind chills accompanying.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 313 AM MST Fri Jan 17 2025

Snow flurries will fall over portions of west central New Mexico
this morning as a weather disturbance moves through. This weather
system will also cause strong and gusty winds to develop this
afternoon, especially along and south of Interstate 40 and east of
the central mountain chain where occasional gusts of 45 to 60 mph
will occur. Otherwise, temperatures will run within a few degrees
of normal today, but an arctic cold front will bring much colder
temperatures and batches of light to moderate snow to northeastern
New Mexico Saturday. The cold air will spread over more of
eastern New Mexico Saturday night and into more into western areas
of the state through Sunday and Sunday night. Even colder
temperatures will arrive on Monday and Tuesday when a second
arctic front brings another surge of frigid air to New Mexico. The
northern mountains and northeastern corner of New Mexico will
observe the coldest temperatures and the most snow with total
accumulations of 2 to 6 inches with higher amounts of 6 to 8
inches near the Raton Pass. The coldest temperatures thus far this
season will occur Saturday through Tuesday of next week with
portions of eastern New Mexico likely remaining below freezing for
3 to 4 consecutive days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 313 AM MST Fri Jan 17 2025

...ARCTIC COLD FRONTS BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

A weakening low pressure system will open into a trough as it
crosses from the upper Baja Peninsula today.  Water vapor imagery
indicates the system has a fair amount of moisture with it, and it
has been producing showers in AZ overnight.  We expected isolated to
widely scattered snow showers over west central and southwest areas
this morning, and spottier activity as far east as the south central
mountains. Any accumulation will remain very light and favor higher
peaks.

The ingredients are coming together for a high wind event over east
central and southeast parts of the forecast area today, so we will
upgrade the High Wind Watch with this forecast package and buffet
that area with Wind Advisories. The northern edge of the subtropical
jetstream will cross southeast NM today, while a ~996 mb surface low
tracks southeastward across the TX panhandle. Strong atmospheric
mixing is also forecast for this time of year with high temperatures
as much as 7 degrees above 1991-2020 averages across southeast and
east central areas this afternoon. Wind gusts from 45 to 60 mph are
forecast from the Sandia, Manzano, and Sacramento mountains east and
southeastward, and as far north as the Caprock on the eastern
plains. The strongest gusts are expected around Clines Corners,
Vaughn, and Dunken. The potential exists for gusts to 50 mph as
far north as Las Vegas and Tucumcari, but confidence is currently
too low to include these two locations in today`s Wind Advisory.
The day shift will need to monitor and expand the Advisory further
north if needed. The strong winds should peak in strength from
midday through early afternoon, then gradually weaken through
sunset. Wind gusts from 35 to 50 mph will then develop along and
west of the central mountain chain on Saturday as an upper level
trough dives southward through the central Rockies strengthening
northwest flow aloft over NM.

The trough on Saturday will also produce a few to several inches of
snow accumulation along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.
With this forecast package we will issue Winter Storm Warnings from
Raton Pass to Clayton, and Winter Weather Advisories from Raton and
Springer to Roy and Mosquero. Further, the storm system will send a
strong but shallow cold front southwestward through northeast and
east central NM tonight and Saturday. High temperatures on
Saturday will struggle to reach the mid 20s from Raton to Clayton
and the freezing mark from Las Vegas to Tucumcari. Much colder
temperatures will also impact the remainder of the forecast area,
except for the southwest quarter where it will take longer for the
cold air to arrive.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 313 AM MST Fri Jan 17 2025

The initial arctic front will advance farther south and west
Saturday night with the model consensus pushing MSLP values up
toward 1037 mb in northeastern NM by daybreak Sunday. Isobars will
pack tightly along the east slopes of the central mountain chain
with some significant cold air damming occurring. This does not
imply that central to western NM misses out on the cold air, but
it will be spared from the shallow and densest part of the arctic
airmass. It is also looking like central areas will also be spared
from any significant or long duration gap wind event. Light snow
will continue over northeastern zones Saturday night, expanding to
the central mountains/highlands and the east central plains
through early Sunday morning.

By the daytime Sunday, the temperatures in western and central
zones will run 5 to 15 degrees below climatology while eastern
areas will be more on the order of 15 to 30 degrees. Winds in the
plains would actually veer southerly by Sunday afternoon as the
surface high settles over KS/OK, but there will be no opportunity
for warm air advection then. Northwesterly flow aloft will remain
brisk, but a lack of vertical mixing will keep breezes subdued
(generally 5 to 15 mph) Sunday afternoon. All eyes will be
upstream to the north as the next surge of arctic air builds
(approximately a 1048-1051mb high in eastern Alberta) Sunday
afternoon.

The next arctic front will plunge into eastern NM on Monday, with
more cold air damming along and east of the central mountain
chain before the end of the day. This will be the coldest day for
the northeastern to east central zones, but cold air advection
will keep progressing into central and western zones through
Tuesday. Another round of light snow will fall from the Sangre de
Cristos eastward into the northeastern plains with the
model/ensemble consensus staying much lower with accumulations
Monday and Monday evening (generally an additional 2 inches or
less). The flow aloft will turn more meridional Monday night,
backing with more of a westerly component into Tuesday. A lee-side
surface trough is actually modeled by Tuesday afternoon, causing
southwesterly breezes to develop over the plains, and this will
lead to compressional warming of a couple to a few degrees.
However, daytime highs will still be 5 to 20 degrees below average
with the biggest departures in the eastern plains.

Northwest flow aloft will buckle more into Wednesday with a
progressive shortwave trough being modeled by several members and
ensemble clusters. However, there is considerable spread with
regards to the strength, timing, and track with ensemble clusters
essentially split. This split among ensemble clusters carries on
into Thursday with just a slight increase in solutions clustering
toward an amplifying west coast ridge. This would spell colder
temperatures in the meridional, post wave flow going into Thursday
with any precipitation likely staying confined to north central
and northeastern NM Wednesday to Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1011 PM MST Thu Jan 16 2025

Clouds have quickly developed over west central NM, including
KGUP, late this evening though they remain VFR thus far. These
clouds will continue to expand overnight and lower, potentially
bringing brief MVFR/IFR cigs to KGUP during the early morning.
Light snow/flurries remain possible as well, though best chances
are south of KGUP between 09Z and 15Z. Southwest to west winds
are already increasing across eastern NM. Winds will continue to
gradually increase along and east of the Central Mountain Chain
overnight, before a more abrupt increase areawide Friday morning
with daytime mixing. The strongest winds are expected from KCQC to
KTCC and points southward, where west to northwest wind gusts of
35 to 50kt are expected. Localized areas of blowing dust are
likely around KROW which may restrict visibility to 2SM or less.
Across northeast NM, an Arctic front will push into the area
Friday, switching wind around to the north, but they will remain
breezy. Wind speeds will diminish Friday evening area wide.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 313 AM MST Fri Jan 17 2025

Winds will become strong today as a Baja low opens into a trough and
crosses with some light snow showers mainly over west central and
southwest areas. The subtropical jetstream and a ~996 mb surface low
crossing the TX panhandle will produce wind gusts in the 40-60 mph
range along and east of the central mountains Friday afternoon, with
the strongest winds around Clines Corners and Vaughn. Fortunately,
humidities will climb near and above 20 percent. Temperatures will
also begin to cool over western, central and northern areas as both
a Pacific and backdoor cold front push through the state.

Temperatures will then plummet during the weekend and fall even
further Monday, as a deep longwave trough carves its way southward
through the central US with a couple of snow-producing shortwave
troughs and strong cold fronts traversing NM. The coldest
temperatures will be on the northeast plains where many places will
fall below freezing Friday night and probably won`t rise above
freezing again until Tuesday afternoon. Many east central locations
will probably experience subfreezing temperatures Saturday night
until Tuesday afternoon. A few to 6 inches of snow are expected
along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains late tonight
through Saturday evening. Additional light snow is forecast mostly
over the same area Monday through Monday evening. Models have been
throttling back on the east canyon wind forecast for Monday night,
because the upper trough is no longer expected to dig very far to
the west of the central mountain chain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  45  15  39   9 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  45   5  34  -4 /   0   0  20  10
Cuba............................  44  14  36   4 /   0   0   5   0
Gallup..........................  48  11  42  -1 /  10   0   5   0
El Morro........................  43  18  39   3 /  30   0   0   0
Grants..........................  48  15  42   2 /  10   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  45  19  42   5 /  40   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  48  26  45  16 /  10   0   0   0
Datil...........................  44  23  42  10 /  20   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  53  11  54   6 /  20   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  54  24  56  19 /  20   0   0   0
Chama...........................  39   6  27  -3 /   0   5  30  20
Los Alamos......................  43  21  34  10 /   0   0  10  20
Pecos...........................  45  17  36   6 /   0   0  20  30
Cerro/Questa....................  42  14  31   1 /   0   5  50  30
Red River.......................  33  10  21  -4 /   0  20  70  40
Angel Fire......................  38   3  25 -16 /   0  20  70  50
Taos............................  44   9  32  -2 /   0   5  40  30
Mora............................  45  11  34   0 /   0  20  40  40
Espanola........................  51  15  43   7 /   0   0  10  20
Santa Fe........................  45  19  37  11 /   0   0  20  30
Santa Fe Airport................  48  18  40   9 /   0   0  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  50  28  42  17 /   5   0   0  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  53  25  45  18 /   5   0   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  56  22  48  10 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  53  24  47  16 /   5   0   0   0
Belen...........................  56  22  52  13 /   5   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  54  23  47  13 /   0   0   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  55  20  49  10 /   5   0   0   0
Corrales........................  55  23  47  14 /   5   0   0   5
Los Lunas.......................  55  22  49  12 /   5   0   0   0
Placitas........................  48  26  41  14 /   5   0   0  20
Rio Rancho......................  53  24  46  15 /   5   0   0   5
Socorro.........................  58  26  57  18 /  10   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  44  22  37  11 /   5   0   0  30
Tijeras.........................  46  23  39  14 /   5   0   0  20
Edgewood........................  46  20  39   8 /   0   0   5  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  15  41   2 /   0   0   5  20
Clines Corners..................  43  17  35   5 /   0   0  20  30
Mountainair.....................  47  23  42   9 /   5   0   5  10
Gran Quivira....................  47  23  42   9 /   5   0   5  10
Carrizozo.......................  51  26  46  15 /  10   0   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  44  27  42  12 /  10   0   0   5
Capulin.........................  46  14  20  -6 /   0  40  90  30
Raton...........................  53  15  25  -3 /   0  40  90  30
Springer........................  53  14  28   0 /   0  20  60  30
Las Vegas.......................  50  14  33   4 /   0  10  40  30
Clayton.........................  54  17  25   2 /   0  20  70  30
Roy.............................  55  17  26   4 /   0  20  70  30
Conchas.........................  62  22  36  11 /   0   5  50  40
Santa Rosa......................  55  20  42  11 /   0   0  20  40
Tucumcari.......................  60  20  33   8 /   0   0  40  40
Clovis..........................  60  24  38  13 /   0   0  20  30
Portales........................  61  22  42  12 /   0   0  20  30
Fort Sumner.....................  59  21  44  11 /   0   0  20  40
Roswell.........................  63  31  51  19 /   5   0   5  10
Picacho.........................  56  29  54  14 /   0   0   0   5
Elk.............................  54  26  53  12 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Saturday for NMZ227-230.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Saturday for NMZ228-231.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM MST this afternoon
for NMZ221-222-226-235>239.

High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM MST this
afternoon for NMZ223-233-240.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...34