188
FXUS65 KABQ 201925
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
125 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026

- Flash flood risk increases in northwest New Mexico Wednesday,
  spreading eastward into central New Mexico late Thursday into
  Friday.

- A few strong to severe storms in western New Mexico Wednesday
  could produce damaging outflow wind gusts and large hail. The
  severe threat extends into central New Mexico Thursday.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will focus over western
  and central New Mexico today. Brief gusty outflow winds and
  lightning are the main hazards.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 120 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Shortwave ridging is building into place over the region in the wake
of a departing shortwave trough over CO/UT. Strengthening
southwesterly shear will help afternoon showers and storms get going
over the southwest mountains where abundant low level moisture
remains, highlighted by surface Td`s in the 50s. SW-NE steering flow
will take these scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms
into the Rio Grande Valley from Socorro to ABQ to Santa Fe late this
afternoon and evening. Southerly flow at the surface will continue
to maintain an increased level of boundary layer moisture into
southern and central portions of NM tonight into Wednesday morning.
Combined with light and variable winds, the abundant near surface
moisture will allow for some patchy fog development over portions of
central and eastern NM Wednesday morning.

Wednesday continues to see the upper level pattern become sharply
amplified with AZ/NM stuck between a 555-558dm H5 closed low off the
CA coastline and a ridge of high pressure aligned N-S over the TX
Big Bend area and eastern NM. Current satellite shows the beginnings
of the suptropical jet bringing a steady flow of moisture into the
Baja Coast now, expected to override the Desert Southwest Wednesday
afternoon. PWAT climbs to the 0.85" to 0.95" range with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim northward
over much of Navajo Nation stretching into the Four Corners region
and northwestern NM Wednesday afternoon. A veering wind profile
looks to yield 35-45kts of bulk shear alongside SBCAPE of ranging
from 500-1000 J/kg supports a current marginal risk of strong to
severe storms over western NM Wednesday afternoon and evening. As
the H5 closed low begins to come ashore SoCal Wednesday night, a
steady flow of fast moving thunderstorms will continue to cross SW-
NE thru northeastern AZ and into western NM. Flow between the low
and the ridge of high pressure will become more meridional N-S in
nature, thus limiting the eastward progression of storms further
into NM thru Wednesday night. This will be the first phase of a
multi-day heavy rain event across the state lasting into the
weekend. With training storms capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall supporting a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall,
a Flood Watch was laid out for western NM mainly along and west of
the Continental Divide. This Flood Watch is likely to be expanded
eastward into central and eastern NM for the Thursday thru Friday
timeframe.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 120 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Thursday begins the second phase of this multi-day heavy rain event
with a vortmax rotating around the southeastern periphery of the H5
low and over the Desert Southwest. This feature will act to push the
main area of fast moving SW-NE moving thunderstorm activity eastward
toward the Rio Grande Valley and central mountain chain of NM.
Remaining in the warm sector of this storm system as well the
subtropical source region for the anomalous moisture plume, snow
levels will remain very high over NM. Much if not nearly all of this
event`s precipitation will be in the form of rain, even over the
northern high terrain. This is also resulting in a rain on snow
threat over the CO San Juans, in turn increasing the risk of higher
river flows along the San Juan basin of northwestern NM. Areas along
river banks will be susceptible to flooding in this area.

Otherwise, Thursday and Thursday night into Friday morning sees the
bulk of the heavy rainfall risk over western, central, and northern
NM. Whether from fast moving storms repeatedly passing over the same
lower to mid-level elevations or orographically enhanced
precipitation over the western and northern mountains, excessive
rainfall threatening flash flooding will be a persistent concern
thru this timeframe. Generally speaking, lower to mid-elevation
areas of central and western NM look to receive 0.50" to 0.75" with
locally higher amounts upwards of 1.00+". The higher terrain of the
southwestern mountains, near the Continental Divide in west-central
NM, and the Jemez and Tusas Mountains look to catch 1 to 2 inches
with locally higher amounts upwards of 2 to 4 inches. A marginal to
slight risk of excessive rainfall was maintained by the WPC as a
result. Low lying and poorly drained areas, low water crossings,
urban areas, and recent burn scars are most at risk. Timing favors
areas along the Rio Grande Valley from Socorro to ABQ to Santa Fe to
Taos Thursday night through Friday morning for the heaviest round(s)
of thunderstorm rain.

The final phase of this event has seen numerical model guidance come
into better agreement with a secondary H5 low closing off over
western AZ. This feature looks to continue tapping into subtropical
moisture, bringing it up into central and eastern NM late Friday and
into the weekend. Areas along and east of the central mountain chain
will then be favored for repeated rounds of showers and
thunderstorms, increasing their own risk for flooding impacts. Areas
along and west of the Rio Grande Valley look to dry out during this
time, with one more round of showers/storms favored thru
northwestern NM Saturday afternoon as the H5 low looks to track
northeastward into UT. Precipitation chances and intensities look to
slowly dwindle for central and eastern NM Sunday and into next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1103 AM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026

A few showers are crossing W to E across parts of eastern NM and
south-central NM this hour. This activity will steadily taper off
or head into TX over the next hour or so. Another round of
isolated to scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms is
forecast to develop over southwestern NM, tracking northeastward
into parts of the Rio Grande Valley from KONM to KABQ to KSAF.
Have maintained PROB30s this later this afternoon and evening.
Some of these showers may reach further north to KGUP and KROW.
Otherwise, light prevailing winds forecast elsewhere with a low
chance for patchy fog development tonight into Wednesday morning
over portions of the eastern plains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026

There are no fire weather concerns thru the next 7 days. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms will again favor reaching portions of
central NM this afternoon and evening. Increased moisture with light
winds today will limit any fire weather concerns. Moisture continues
to increase Wednesday while a widespread wetting rain event
threatening flash flooding in poorly drained areas and recent burn
scars crosses the state west to east Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  50  70  53  67 /   0  80  90  90
Dulce...........................  37  69  45  63 /   0  70  80  70
Cuba............................  46  70  50  66 /   5  50  60  60
Gallup..........................  45  71  48  66 /   5  70  80  90
El Morro........................  45  71  48  65 /   0  60  70  80
Grants..........................  47  70  50  65 /   5  70  60  60
Quemado.........................  48  73  52  67 /   5  30  40  80
Magdalena.......................  51  71  54  67 /   0  10  20  40
Datil...........................  47  69  50  63 /   0  30  40  60
Reserve.........................  47  76  51  68 /  20  40  70  80
Glenwood........................  51  80  56  73 /  20  40  80  80
Chama...........................  40  64  45  59 /   0  50  80  60
Los Alamos......................  48  70  52  66 /   0  10  50  30
Pecos...........................  44  72  48  70 /   0  20  40  10
Cerro/Questa....................  43  68  48  66 /   0  10  40  20
Red River.......................  36  61  42  59 /   0   5  30  20
Angel Fire......................  30  66  37  64 /   0   5  20  10
Taos............................  39  72  46  69 /   0  10  40  20
Mora............................  40  70  45  67 /   0  10  20  10
Espanola........................  44  77  50  75 /   0  10  50  20
Santa Fe........................  49  72  53  70 /   0  20  40  10
Santa Fe Airport................  46  74  52  72 /   0  10  40  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  56  79  59  76 /   0   5  30  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  52  78  55  76 /   0   5  30  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  49  80  55  77 /   0   5  30  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  54  78  56  75 /   5  10  30  30
Belen...........................  49  79  55  76 /   0   0  20  20
Bernalillo......................  51  80  55  77 /   5  10  40  20
Bosque Farms....................  47  79  54  77 /   0   5  20  20
Corrales........................  52  80  55  77 /   5  10  30  20
Los Lunas.......................  48  79  55  76 /   0   5  20  20
Placitas........................  54  76  57  73 /   0  10  30  20
Rio Rancho......................  53  79  55  75 /   5  10  40  30
Socorro.........................  56  81  58  78 /  10   0  10  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  73  52  70 /   0   5  30  20
Tijeras.........................  51  74  53  71 /   0   5  30  20
Edgewood........................  47  75  50  72 /   5  10  30  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  43  76  48  75 /  10   5  20  10
Clines Corners..................  47  72  50  71 /  10   5  20   5
Mountainair.....................  47  75  50  72 /  10   0  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  48  74  50  72 /  10   0   5   5
Carrizozo.......................  55  76  55  75 /   0   5   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  49  72  50  72 /   0  10   0   5
Capulin.........................  44  71  50  69 /   0   0   5   0
Raton...........................  40  74  47  73 /   0   0  10   5
Springer........................  39  75  48  75 /   0   0  10   5
Las Vegas.......................  41  72  48  68 /   0   5  10   5
Clayton.........................  51  77  56  76 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  42  75  50  71 /   0   0  10   0
Conchas.........................  50  81  55  80 /   0   0   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  51  78  53  75 /  20   0   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  54  81  57  81 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  54  82  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  54  82  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  53  81  53  78 /   5   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  54  82  54  80 /   5   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  51  79  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  50  79  51  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night
for NMZ201>210-241.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24