408
FXUS65 KABQ 102325 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
525 PM MDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 147 PM MDT Tue Sep 10 2024

One more day of isolated afternoon and early evening storms across
the north central mountains and adjacent highlands Wednesday before
breezy and dry conditions areawide Thursday and Friday as a system
moves across the northern Rockies. Increasing moisture from a
tropical system over Baja California help to slowly increase shower
and storm chances across the western and southern high terrain areas
late Saturday spreading north to most of the forecast area Sunday.
Shower and storm chances remain across western areas Monday ahead of
a deeper Pacific storm with windier and dry conditions favored after
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 147 PM MDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Pressure heights will trend down through Wednesday night, as the
upper high continues to back off to the southwest and give ground to
intruding westerlies associated with an upstream upper level
trough/low moving east from along the west coast. Sufficient
moisture and instability are combining this afternoon to produce a
round of "garden-variety" convection that is greater in coverage
that yesterday`s, partially due to warmer temperatures and partially
due to less subsidence. Wednesday`s round will be similar, though
likely focused further east across our area as drier air associated
with the approaching trough begins to move into western NM. High
temperatures on Wednesday will be similar to today`s and the
Albuquerque Sunport is forecast to reach 90 degrees in what will
likely be one of the last 90 degree days of the calendar year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 147 PM MDT Tue Sep 10 2024

An upper low moving across the northern Rockies Thursday and Friday
with some stronger mid and upper level winds at the base of the low
(20 to 30 kts at 700 mb) moving over far northern and western NM.
This will result in a breezy and dry Thursday afternoon with the
westerly flow dropping PWATS below half an inch across most of the
forecast area. Southwest and west surface winds ahead of a weak
Pacific front will result in the warmest day of the week across
western and central NM with a forecasted high of 91 at the ABQ
Sunport. Downsloping south-southwest winds will heat eastern NM up
into the 90s with Roswell getting close to the 100 degree mark. Mid
and upper level winds relax on Friday as the upper low moves north
into the Canada. Temperatures cool 1 to 3 degrees across western and
central NM behind the weak Pacific front, but heat up a few more
degrees across eastern NM due to the downsloping westerly flow.
Roswell is forecasted to get to 100 degrees on Friday which should
hopefully be the last 100 degree day of the year. If this occurs,
it would be the 6th latest 100 degree day.

Weak ridging builds over the state on Saturday ahead of a weak
disturbance over southern CA and NV. This disturbance looks to help
bring up some mid and upper level moisture from an eventual tropical
system over southern Baja CA across northern Mexico, southern AZ and
NM and parts of western NM. Saturday should be a dry day for most,
but a few high based showers and storms can`t be ruled out across
the southern high terrain with gusty and erratic winds likely being
the main hazard. This higher moisture moves north across the rest of
the state Sunday as the weak disturbance moves overhead. There is
still some uncertainty as to how much moisture increases on Sunday
with the deterministic GFS really aggressive and increasing the PWAT
at ABQ to just over an inch Sunday afternoon. On the other hand, the
deterministic ECMWF aligns more with the ensemble clusters and box
and whisker solutions with PWATS more around 0.7 inches. The
forecast and the NBM favor this 2nd solution more with scattered
shower and storm coverage across the higher terrain becoming more
isolated across lower elevations. Brisk storm motion to the
northeast will limit heavy rainfall amounts across area burn scars.
Gusty and erratic wind gusts from nearby activity will be the
greater threat for lower elevations which could impact the last day
of the state fair. The disturbance moves east of the state Monday
with weak shortwave ridging overhead ahead of a deep upper low along
the Pacific Coast. Even through ensemble clusters and box and
whisker guidance show PWATs increasing a little more to around 0.8
to 0.9 inches, subsidence behind Sunday`s disturbance should keep
things dry across eastern and parts of central NM. However, shower
and storm chances remain across western NM due to increasing lift
ahead of the eastward moving Pacific upper low. Beyond, conditions
look to be drier and windier as a majority of ensemble clusters
depict strong upper level southwest to west flow ahead of the
persistent longwave trough across the western US.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 PM MDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Virga shower activity is producing erratic gusty winds up to 25kts
across much of western NM into the Rio Grande Valley this hour. A
bit more robust showers producing actual rainfall is present over
the northeastern highlands b/w KLVS and KRTN. This activity will
taper off over the next two to three hours, leaving behind sct-bkn
mid-level cloud levels and steadily weakening wind speeds.
Prevailing southerlies return to much of eastern NM with
drier westerlies entering far western NM. Central NM along the Rio
Grande Valley and central mountain chain will see another round of
afternoon convection in the form of showers and perhaps a stray
isolated thunderstorm similar to today. Gusty erratic winds will
be the most common impact from this activity Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 147 PM MDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Daytime heating triggered showers and storms will continue through
Wednesday, but with a very small wetting footprint and favoring
strong/erratic wind gusts. The 2024 North American Monsoon is slowly
winding down and dry westerlies associated with an upstream upper
level trough/low will intrude Wednesday night into Thursday,
bringing lower humidity, increased winds and even some spotty
critical fire weather conditions. However, moisture advection is
forecast over the weekend with wetting storms returning as a weak
approaching Pacific trough picks up tropical moisture from the the
Gulf of California and pulls it north into NM. The threat for burn
scar flooding will return by Sunday and may continue into Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  54  88  54  89 /  10   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  43  83  43  83 /  20  10   0   0
Cuba............................  49  83  50  83 /  10  10   0   0
Gallup..........................  48  86  47  85 /  10   0   0   0
El Morro........................  51  83  49  82 /  20   0   0   0
Grants..........................  46  86  47  87 /  20  10   0   0
Quemado.........................  51  83  50  83 /  10   5   0   0
Magdalena.......................  57  83  56  85 /  10  10   0   0
Datil...........................  49  82  48  83 /  20  10   0   0
Reserve.........................  47  88  48  87 /  10   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  57  92  58  91 /  10   0   0   0
Chama...........................  44  76  43  76 /  20  20   5   0
Los Alamos......................  57  80  56  82 /  10  10   5   0
Pecos...........................  52  80  52  81 /  10  20   5   0
Cerro/Questa....................  44  77  44  78 /  20  30   5   0
Red River.......................  41  68  40  68 /  20  30  10   0
Angel Fire......................  31  72  32  75 /  20  30  10   0
Taos............................  43  81  44  83 /  20  20   5   0
Mora............................  44  77  44  79 /  20  30  10   0
Espanola........................  53  86  53  89 /  10  10   5   0
Santa Fe........................  56  82  56  84 /  10  10   5   0
Santa Fe Airport................  53  85  53  87 /  10  10   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  63  88  62  89 /  20   5   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  61  90  60  91 /  10   5   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  56  91  56  93 /  10   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  59  90  60  91 /  10   5   0   0
Belen...........................  56  91  56  92 /  10   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  60  91  58  93 /  20   5   5   0
Bosque Farms....................  52  91  53  92 /  10   5   0   0
Corrales........................  57  91  58  94 /  10   5   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  53  91  55  92 /  10   5   0   0
Placitas........................  59  88  59  89 /  20   5   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  59  90  59  92 /  10   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  59  92  59  95 /  10   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  82  55  82 /  20  10   5   0
Tijeras.........................  56  84  56  85 /  20  10   5   0
Edgewood........................  52  85  51  86 /  10  10   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  47  85  47  89 /  10  10   5   0
Clines Corners..................  51  81  47  84 /  10  20   5   0
Mountainair.....................  53  83  52  85 /  10  10   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  51  84  51  84 /  10  10   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  57  86  58  88 /   5   5   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  53  78  54  82 /  10  10   0   0
Capulin.........................  50  80  50  81 /  20  20  20   0
Raton...........................  47  83  47  88 /  20  20  10   0
Springer........................  47  85  47  87 /  20  20   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  47  81  47  85 /  20  20   5   0
Clayton.........................  57  87  57  89 /  10   5   5   0
Roy.............................  53  82  52  86 /  20  10  10   0
Conchas.........................  55  91  56  94 /  10  10   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  54  89  54  90 /  10  10   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  56  91  56  92 /   5   5   5   0
Clovis..........................  56  89  57  93 /   0   5   5   0
Portales........................  57  90  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  56  90  56  92 /   5  10   5   0
Roswell.........................  59  93  60  99 /   0   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  56  88  56  92 /   5   5   0   0
Elk.............................  54  85  55  91 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...24