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Forecast Discussion for Albuquerque, NM
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203 FXUS65 KABQ 201124 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 424 AM MST Tue Jan 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 413 AM MST Tue Jan 20 2026 - Quiet weather persists through Thursday, with near to above average temperatures, mostly clear skies, and light winds. - Stark pattern change occurs Friday. An Arctic cold front and Pacific Low will combine to bring snow, wintry mix, and plummeting temperatures to the area Friday through Saturday night. There is a moderate to high chance of at least minor impacts such as hazardous travel conditions along and east of the central mountain chain. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 219 AM MST Tue Jan 20 2026 Dry northwest flow will be the story today and Wednesday as ridging persists over the west coast of the US. Sfc pressure falls in response to downsloping will significantly warm temps up in eastern NM, with 24-hr temp changes as high as 25 degrees in the northeast plains. A light to moderate west breeze will develop in eastern NM as well, with light winds and little temperatures change in central and western areas. A weak frontal passage in the eastern plains will shift winds around to the north and knock temps down 5-10 degrees again Wednesday while central and western areas again have little in the way of sensible weather changes. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 219 AM MST Tue Jan 20 2026 Winter will make a return late in the week as a Pacific Low and an A Arctic airmass combine to create messy winter weather across New Mexico. High clouds will begin streaming overhead Thursday as a Pacific Low straddles the California coast and a longwave trough over the central part of the country sends a potent cold front southward down the high plains. The front will surge south and westward Thursday night into Friday and this will likely generate a short period of gusty north to northeast winds as the front sweeps through eastern NM. At the same time, mid-level moisture will push in from the southwest, with isentropic lift over the cold, dry airmass at the sfc leading to the development of widespread (generally light) precipitation. P-type north of I-40 will remain all snow given the sufficient depth of the cold layer, but there is a moderate chance for a wintery mix of precipitation in southeastern NM Friday into Friday night. Both sleet and freezing rain are on the table, but model soundings currently favor sleet in the Roswell area, with the main band of freezing rain further south. Since the storm system is still several days out, this will be something we will continue to monitor closely. By Saturday, persistent cold air advection is expected to drop temps enough to change precipitation over to all snow in eastern NM, with a rain/snow mix still in the lower elevations of central and western NM. These areas notably have a significant uncertainty with regard to slow levels, as evidenced by a a nearly 3kft difference in snow levels between the 25th and 75th percentile in Albuquerque on Saturday. The combination of upslope flow along the central mountain chain and widespread isentropic lift appear to favor the central mountain chain for the highest snow amounts and that is backed up by the current 50th percentile snow amounts from the NBM which has 3 to 6 inches along the central mountain chain and up to 10 over the peaks. 90th percentile amounts are quite impressive with widespread amounts of 6"+ along and east of the central mountain chain, with a few inches even in the lower elevations of central and western NM. The other story with this storm will be the cold temperatures in what has been an otherwise seasonably warm winter. Forecast highs continue to trend down for Friday and Saturday and current highs are around 25 degrees below average on Saturday in the eastern plains and 5-10 degrees below average west of the central mountain chain. Since the trough axis will push across the area Sunday, this will replace the modified arctic airmass and actually warm temperatures despite the falling 500mb heights. A warming trend is favored early next week as dry northwest flow returns. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 413 AM MST Tue Jan 20 2026 VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period. Light winds will prevail in central and western areas, with a light to moderate west breeze east of the central mountain chain. A weak, dry cold front will move from north to south across eastern NM between 03Z to 12Z tomorrow morning, shifting winds around to the north. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 AM MST Tue Jan 20 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7 days. Dry conditions will persist through Thursday, with little sensible weather changes other than another dry cold frontal passage in the eastern plains Tuesday night. Poor to fair ventilation will prevail in most areas the next couple of days, with very minor improvements Thursday into Friday. Wetter and colder conditions are favored Friday through Monday as an upper Pacific Low combines with a strong cold front from the northeast. This will result in widespread precipitation, with mountain snow and a wintry mix of precipitation in mid and lower elevation areas. Wetting precipitation is likely (70%+ chance) along the central mountain chain and in the eastern plains, with a lower chance (30-70%) for central and western areas. A drying and warming trend is favored for the start of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 45 20 46 22 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 48 13 49 14 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 47 19 48 22 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 50 14 53 19 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 50 22 53 27 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 53 14 56 19 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 52 21 56 27 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 51 27 54 32 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 52 24 54 29 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 60 19 62 25 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 63 23 65 29 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 42 14 43 17 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 45 24 46 27 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 49 21 48 25 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 45 20 46 23 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 37 16 39 21 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 42 7 43 11 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 47 12 48 13 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 52 19 52 25 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 53 18 53 19 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 47 25 47 28 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 47 21 48 24 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 50 30 52 33 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 51 25 53 28 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 53 22 55 26 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 52 26 53 28 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 52 19 53 21 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 53 25 54 28 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 52 19 54 22 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 53 24 54 27 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 52 21 54 23 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 49 28 50 32 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 52 26 53 28 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 54 24 57 27 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 46 26 48 29 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 46 26 48 29 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 49 22 52 25 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 51 15 53 18 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 46 20 47 24 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 49 22 53 27 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 50 22 53 27 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 53 27 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 51 28 54 33 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 53 14 46 19 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 54 14 48 17 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 57 14 52 17 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 54 18 51 24 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 58 22 48 22 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 54 18 46 22 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 61 20 54 23 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 58 22 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 60 21 54 23 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 54 23 53 26 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 55 22 54 24 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 55 22 52 22 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 53 22 55 24 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 58 27 56 30 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 60 24 59 29 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...16 |
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