439
FXUS65 KABQ 210656
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1256 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain
  westward through Wednesday with a risk of lightning, heavy rain,
  localized flooding, gusty outflow winds, and small hail.

- The greatest risk for isolated flash flooding will focus along
  and west of the central mountain chain through Wednesday, as
  well as the Ruidoso area burn scars.

- Moderate to major heat risk will afflict lower elevations of
  central and eastern New Mexico during the latter half of the
  week into the weekend where highs climb back into the 100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1226 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A yin and yang weather pattern remains over the Intermountain West
highlighted by a 596dm H5 high centered near Salt Lake City while an
inverted wave continues to progress slowly westward across southern
NM. While this past evening`s convection has exited westward into
AZ, CAMs are picking up on the potential for a cluster of showers
and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm developing near the center of
the aforementioned low over southern Socorro County early this
morning predawn. Otherwise, conditions look to be fairly tranquil
elsewhere across the forecast area to start Tuesday.

This afternoon`s diurnally driven convection will again favor
development over the high terrain along and west of the central
mountain chain. Steering flow will generally take storms E to W
early, before switching more SE to NW by the evening as the low
begins to non-canonically make a right turn at Albuquerque toward
the Four Corners region and Navajo Nation. With PWATs still hovering
at or above the 90th percentile in the 1.00" to 1.20" range over
much of the state, any of these afternoon storms could become very
efficient rain producers. Good steering flow favoring storm motions
of 10-20 mph will help limit the flash flood potential though.
However, a marginal to slight flash flood risk remains mainly for
areas along west of the Continental Divide as any potential flooding
impacts will depend on a game between the modest storm motions and
storms tracking over already rain soaked areas or over the same
location repeatedly. A Flood Watch issuance over west-central NM and
the southwest mountains in Catron County was considered due to this.
However, water vapor imagery is showing a notable tongue of dry air
protruding over the area north of the center of the inverted
low/trough. The latest runs of numerical model guidance does not
seem to be picking up on that just yet. HiRes CAMs also denote
general rainfall totals of 0.10" to 0.50" with only localized
amounts reaching 1.00+" from stronger and more rain efficient
thunderstorms. NAEFs climatology also depicts only a 1 std dev of
PWAT over the region, with the higher anomalous monsoon moisture
further west into AZ and this could be lower given the
aforementioned tongue of dry air. All of that to say a Flood Watch
was not issued for west-central NM and the southwest mountains in
Catron County, though there remains a low 5% to 10% risk of flash
flooding if storms can move slower, along and parallel to drainage
basins, overcome mid-to-upper level dry air intrusion and track over
the same areas repeatedly.

Regarding flash flood potential for the Ruidoso area burn scars
Tuesday, the dry air tongue is north of the area allowing for deeper
monsoonal moisture to linger. A N/NW storm motion will also favor
potential anchoring of updrafts near or just south of the burn scars
allowing for longer residence time of thunderstorm activity.
Therefore, the Flood Watch there remains intact. Wednesday sees a
similar but slightly less flash flood risk with northerly steering
flow taking storms along the Sacramento Mtn ridgeline and over or
near the burn scars.

Evening convection lingers longest over western NM, clearing out
overnight into Wednesday morning. Wednesday sees the tango dance
between the inverted trough and the monsoon high swing the high over
northern TX and the trough over SE UT. This will again favor
afternoon thunderstorm activity along and west of the central
mountain chain. The subtle difference will be higher convective
activity along the Sangre de Cristo Mts relative to recent days.
Storm motions will also favor a S to N direction. Subsequent
convection will try to build over nearby valley areas of north-
central NM and could favor areas of Rio Arriba and northern Sandoval
Counties fairly well in terms of rain amounts late day and evening.
Late evening will try to spread into the Rio Grande Valley, but
steering flow looks to be a bit too northerly to truly favor the ABQ
metro area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1226 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Thursday sees the monsoon high slide over NM bringing hotter
temperatures to the area, notably eastern NM where low to mid 100s
will be favored again. Highs in the 90s to near 100 will favor lower
elevation areas of central and western NM. A moderate to high heat
risk will result each day, mainly for central and eastern NM as a
result. Lingering low-level moisture will favor a moisture recycling
trend each day Thursday onward through the weekend with little
changes to the overall weather pattern as the high loiters over NM.
As such, expect daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorm activity
developing over the high terrain, slowly meandering over surrounding
lower elevations late afternoon, and lingering and dying out through
the late evening hours. Wetting footprints will be small as such,
with localized rain shafts under storms. Any flash flooding concerns
will be where the slowest storms occur, but suppression beneath the
high should limit this threat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 PM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

This evening`s thunderstorm activity has exited westward into AZ
with clearing and calming conditions forecast for the rest of
tonight into Tuesday morning. The exception could be a few
clustered showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm near KONM.
Otherwise, another round of afternoon thunderstorms will favor
development over the central and western high terrain before being
steered WNW/NW toward AZ and the Four Corners region. Localized
MVFR/IFR conditions will accompany any of the stronger showers and
storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1226 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

There are no fire weather concerns thru the next 7 days as monsoonal
moisture remains alongside light to modest prevailing winds.
Afternoon thunderstorm activity will continue to favor development
over the high terrain. Steering flow will take storms to the NW and
N today and Wednesday. Slower storm motions will be favored Thursday
onward as the monsoon high sets up residence over central and
northern NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  95  66  90  64 /  40  70  40  60
Dulce...........................  93  54  87  53 /  50  60  60  70
Cuba............................  87  59  86  58 /  40  40  20  60
Gallup..........................  86  58  85  58 /  80  50  60  40
El Morro........................  81  56  81  56 /  70  50  70  50
Grants..........................  86  58  86  58 /  50  30  70  40
Quemado.........................  80  56  82  57 /  80  40  60  40
Magdalena.......................  82  62  84  64 /  50  20  30  20
Datil...........................  78  57  81  59 /  80  40  70  20
Reserve.........................  84  55  87  56 /  90  50  50  20
Glenwood........................  86  58  91  59 /  90  60  40  30
Chama...........................  86  53  80  52 /  40  50  60  70
Los Alamos......................  86  64  85  65 /  40  40  20  40
Pecos...........................  87  58  86  59 /  10  40  40  40
Cerro/Questa....................  86  57  84  58 /  10  10  40  30
Red River.......................  76  50  75  50 /  10  10  60  30
Angel Fire......................  81  46  79  48 /  20  20  80  40
Taos............................  89  57  86  57 /  10  10  40  40
Mora............................  83  56  83  55 /  20  30  40  30
Espanola........................  95  65  92  65 /  20  30  20  40
Santa Fe........................  88  63  86  64 /  20  30  30  40
Santa Fe Airport................  91  62  89  62 /  20  30  30  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  90  67  91  67 /  30  40  30  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  91  68  92  69 /  30  30  10  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  93  65  94  66 /  30  30  10  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  93  67  93  68 /  30  30  10  30
Belen...........................  92  64  95  66 /  50  20  10  20
Bernalillo......................  94  67  93  68 /  30  40  20  30
Bosque Farms....................  91  63  93  64 /  40  20  10  20
Corrales........................  94  67  94  68 /  30  40  10  30
Los Lunas.......................  91  64  93  66 /  40  20  10  20
Placitas........................  89  66  89  67 /  30  30  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  93  67  92  68 /  30  40  10  30
Socorro.........................  92  68  95  70 /  40  10  10   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  86  61  86  62 /  30  30  40  20
Tijeras.........................  86  61  87  63 /  30  30  40  20
Edgewood........................  87  59  87  59 /  20  20  30  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  89  57  90  57 /  20  20  20  20
Clines Corners..................  84  58  85  58 /  20  20  20  20
Mountainair.....................  86  59  88  60 /  50  20  20  10
Gran Quivira....................  84  59  86  60 /  40  10  20  10
Carrizozo.......................  84  64  88  65 /  60  20  50  10
Ruidoso.........................  79  59  84  59 /  80  20  60  20
Capulin.........................  87  59  87  61 /  10  10  10  10
Raton...........................  94  60  93  59 /  20  10  20  10
Springer........................  93  60  93  60 /  10  10  10  10
Las Vegas.......................  87  58  88  59 /  10  20  30  20
Clayton.........................  96  67  98  69 /   0  10   5  10
Roy.............................  90  64  91  65 /   0  10  10  10
Conchas.........................  97  68  98  69 /   0  10   5   5
Santa Rosa......................  92  65  94  66 /   0  10   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  99  71 103  72 /   0   5   0   5
Clovis..........................  96  69  99  69 /   0   5   0   0
Portales........................  97  69 100  70 /   0   5   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  95  69  99  69 /   0   5   5   0
Roswell.........................  98  71 101  71 /   5   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  89  65  92  65 /  30  10  10  10
Elk.............................  85  61  88  60 /  40  10  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this afternoon for
NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24