563
FXUS65 KABQ 202357 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
557 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 544 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Evaporating showers and dry thunderstorms across western and
  central NM Monday and potentially the central high terrain
  Tuesday will result in gusty and erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph
  and patchy blowing dust. Low chance of new fire starts from dry
  lightning.

- There is moderate to high confidence in widespread critical fire
  weather conditions on Wednesday and Thursday and for western and
  central New Mexico on Friday. This will increase the threat of
  rapid fire spread with any fire starts.

- Strong southwest and west winds will result in difficult
  crosswinds for high profile vehicles on north-south highways
  Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 214 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Showers have begun to develop early this afternoon, with coverage
generally focusing south of I-40 and west of I-25. The atmosphere
has sufficiently destabilized for the development of a few storms
across the Southwest Mountains as well and there has even been a
couple strikes in DeBaca County as well. Most areas will receive
very little to no rainfall today, but a few pockets of wetting
rainfall are likely across southwest and south-central NM. Gusty
outflow winds could push northward into the Albuquerque metro area
later today, but the threat of strong outflow wind gusts impacting
outdoor activities this evening remains quite low. Higher moisture
levels will keep temps seasonably warm again tonight, with lows
similar, if not warmer, than this morning.

Shortwave ridging will amplify over New Mexico on Tuesday,
increasing temperatures and bringing drier air in from the west.
There may be just enough mid-level of moisture for a few gusty
showers over the northern high terrain, but the mid-level ridging
should help to keep convection quite shallow. A light southwest to
south breeze will prevail around the region Tuesday afternoon, with
partly cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

A longwave trough will move into The Great Basin on Wednesday, with
increasing southwest to west winds at the base of the trough as it
swings through the Four Corners region. As a result, southwest to
west winds will trend stronger through the day, likely peaking late
afternoon in most areas. Gusts of 30 to 50 mph will be commonplace
around all of central and northern NM, with the strongest winds
focusing over far northern NM. While some patchy blowing dust could
get kicked up, significant visibility reductions from blowing dust
are unlikely. 700 mb winds intensify along the east slopes of the
Sangre de Cristo mountains Wednesday night into Thursday, likely
keeping gusty winds going through the night in these areas. Gusty
winds will focus over central and eastern NM on Thursday afternoon
as a dry Pacific cold front sweeps across the region from west to
east.

The subtropical jet will remain overhead on Friday, keeping the dry
and windy conditions around. Wind speeds have notably trended higher
on Friday and there are some indications winds could be stronger
than Thursday in some areas. West winds shift around to the
southwest over the weekend in response to a deepening trough over
The West Coast. Both days will likely be at least breezy, with windy
conditions in the typically windy areas such as the Central and
Northeast Highlands. Winds have trended stronger during this period
as well thanks to a slight northward shift and intensification of
the subtropical jet. Low precipitation chances are still in the
forecast for northern NM over the weekend into early next week. The
stronger sub-tropical jet should help to provide some additional
moisture and lift, increasing confidence for this light
precipitation. Given this active pattern, low chances of
precipitation will likely extend further south around the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are struggling over south central New
Mexico, mainly between KABQ, KONM, KSRR, and KSXU, and this
activity will slowly fade away through the early evening hours.
Abrupt gusty outflow winds to 40 kt, a few lightning strikes, and
small hail, will accompany the stronger storms. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail into the evening with surface breezes
settling to 5 to 15 kt overnight. Near or shortly after midnight,
low clouds will enter southeastern New Mexico as moisture pushes
in from the Gulf. These low stratus clouds will make a run toward
a KROW-to-KCVN line with MVFR (below 3,000 ft) to IFR (at or below
1,000 ft) ceilings staying south and east of that line. These
clouds will be slow to erode away and burn off through the late
morning and early afternoon Tuesday. A few more high-based, weak
showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled
out over the continental divide and central mountain chain of New
Mexico Tuesday with just a 10-20% chance of development.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Gusty showers and a few storms will focus over southwestern NM
today, with very isolated showers elsewhere. Rainfall amounts will
generally be very light, with isolated pockets of wetting rainfall
in the Southwest Mountains. The threat of fire starts from dry
lightning remains low given that lightning activity will generally
focus in the areas with higher humidities. A few gusty showers may
develop again on Tuesday afternoon in the northern mountains. While
a lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out, very modest
instability will not support much lightning activity.

Drier conditions arrive Wednesday as southwest to west flow aloft
increases out ahead of a Great Basin trough. This will create
widespread critical fire weather conditions and a Fire Weather Watch
was issued for almost the entire area as a result. Dewpoints will
plummet in response to deep mixing with several hours of single
digit RH forecast in west-central and eastern NM. While ERCs are
only near to slightly above the 50th percentile in most of western
and central NM, rapid drying of fine fuels is a concern. Critical
fire weather conditions are likely again Thursday in central and
eastern areas, with lower chances in the west.

Winds have trended stronger Friday through the weekend as well since
the subtropical jet has trended stronger. Winds will be near Red
Flag thresholds each day in at least eastern NM, but humidities will
gradually trend higher thanks to a slight uptick in moisture. Low
precipitation chances will favor northern NM over the weekend, but
substantial precipitation remains unlikely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  44  80  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  33  76  37  71 /   0   5   5   0
Cuba............................  40  74  41  72 /   5  10  10   0
Gallup..........................  35  75  36  70 /   5   5   0   0
El Morro........................  39  71  39  68 /  10  10   0   0
Grants..........................  37  76  38  74 /  10  10   5   0
Quemado.........................  40  74  40  72 /  10   5   0   0
Magdalena.......................  47  75  47  76 /  20  10   0   0
Datil...........................  41  72  42  70 /  30  10   0   0
Reserve.........................  37  77  36  75 /  10   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  40  82  39  79 /   5   0   0   0
Chama...........................  34  69  36  64 /   0  10   5   0
Los Alamos......................  47  72  49  71 /   5  10   5   0
Pecos...........................  40  75  42  73 /  20  20  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  38  72  42  68 /   0  10  10   0
Red River.......................  34  62  37  59 /   0  20  10   0
Angel Fire......................  26  68  29  66 /   5  20  10   0
Taos............................  34  76  38  72 /   5  10  10   0
Mora............................  37  74  41  72 /  10  10  10   0
Espanola........................  42  80  44  79 /   5  10   5   0
Santa Fe........................  44  74  46  73 /  10  10  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  42  77  44  76 /  10  10  10   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  51  80  54  80 /  10  10   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  49  82  51  81 /  10  10   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  46  84  48  84 /  10  10   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  48  82  51  82 /   5  10   5   0
Belen...........................  44  83  46  85 /  10  10   5   0
Bernalillo......................  47  82  50  82 /   5  10   5   0
Bosque Farms....................  42  83  45  84 /  10  10   5   0
Corrales........................  47  83  50  83 /   5  10   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  42  83  45  84 /  10  10   5   0
Placitas........................  49  78  52  78 /  10   5   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  49  82  51  81 /   5  10   5   0
Socorro.........................  50  85  50  87 /  20   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  46  74  49  74 /  10   5  10   0
Tijeras.........................  46  76  49  76 /  10   5   5   0
Edgewood........................  42  77  46  76 /  20   5   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  32  79  38  78 /  20   5   5   0
Clines Corners..................  42  75  44  74 /  20  10   5   0
Mountainair.....................  44  77  46  77 /  20   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  43  75  45  76 /  30   5   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  49  77  51  79 /  20  10   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  44  71  49  72 /  20  10   0   0
Capulin.........................  38  74  42  79 /   0  10   5   0
Raton...........................  36  78  40  81 /   0  10   0   0
Springer........................  36  80  40  83 /   0  10   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  39  76  43  76 /  10  10   5   0
Clayton.........................  46  82  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  41  79  46  82 /   5  10   5   0
Conchas.........................  46  86  49  90 /  10   0  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  44  83  49  86 /  20  10   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  49  87  52  91 /  20   0   5   0
Clovis..........................  48  84  51  87 /  20   0   5   5
Portales........................  48  85  51  89 /  20   0   5   5
Fort Sumner.....................  48  85  48  90 /  20  10   5   0
Roswell.........................  50  86  52  92 /  10   5   5   0
Picacho.........................  45  81  49  83 /  10  10   0   0
Elk.............................  42  78  46  78 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for NMZ101-104>106-120>126.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...52