573
FXUS65 KABQ 201121 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
521 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 521 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Evaporating showers and dry thunderstorms across western and
  central NM Monday and potentially the central high terrain
  Tuesday will result in gusty and erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph
  and patchy blowing dust. Low chance of new fire starts from dry
  lightning.

- There is moderate to high confidence in widespread critical fire
  weather conditions on Wednesday and Thursday and for western and
  central New Mexico on Friday. This will increase the threat of
  rapid fire spread with any fire starts.

- Strong southwest and west winds will result in difficult
  crosswinds for high profile vehicles on north-south highways
  Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 148 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Cloud bases are gradually lowering this morning as relatively higher
mid level and low level moisture pushes northward ahead of a weak
disturbance over southern AZ and northwest Mexico. Moisture content
is highest across southeast NM resulting in some low clouds and
isolated sprinkles. Come late this morning PWATs will range from
around 0.4 to 0.5 inches across western and central NM and around
0.5 to 0.8 inches across the east central and southeast plains.
Drier PWATs of 0.2 to 0.4 inches will linger across north central
and northeast NM. This aforementioned higher moisture combined with
daytime heating and the weak disturbance moving overhead will set
the stage for a mostly dry showers and thunderstorms for western and
central NM. Wetter activity will favor the peaks of the southwest
and south central higher terrain with rainfall amounts of 0.2 to 0.3
inches in the cores of showers and storms as they slowly drift east.
Drier shower and thunderstorm activity will come with the associated
hazards of erratic wind gusts of up to 50 mph, patchy blowing dust
and dry lightning strikes, which could lead to future fire starts
later in the week.

Wet/dry shower and thunderstorm activity across central and eastern
NM Monday evening will taper off around to just after sunset. Clouds
will clear out for most by midnight, except for low cloud
development across southeast NM due to low surface dewpoint
depressions from moist southerly flow. Drier westerly flow moves
into the state Tuesday in the wake of the disturbance and ahead of
an unseasonably strong upper low spinning off southern OR and
northern CA. Isolated gusty virga showers to very light rain showers
can`t be ruled out across the central high terrain and nearby lower
elevations due to some lingering mid level moisture and PWATs around
0.3 to 0.5 inches. Any shower activity tapers off around sunset with
clear skies and cool to mild temperatures overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 148 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

The upper low mentioned in the short term is forecast to move into
the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin Wednesday. 500 to 700
mb winds will increase during day to 35 to 50 kts by the late
afternoon as the base of the upper low moves east towards the state.
This will result in much drier and gusty southwest winds for most
areas. MOS guidance shows potential for the strongest wind gusts of
50 to 55 mph across northeast NM, the upper RGV near the CO border,
and northwest NM around Gallup Wednesday afternoon and early
evening. As a result, moderate to high confidence exists for a high
risk for rapid fire spread across much of northern and central NM
outside of the higher elevations. As mentioned in the short term,
locations that experienced dry lightning strikes on Monday will be
potential breeding grounds for fire starts. West winds remain gusty
across the highlands and higher terrain Wednesday night into
Thursday morning as the base of the trough passes overhead. 700 mb
winds of 40 to 50 kts across the central mountain chain and adjacent
highlands will result in mountain wave activity. Gusty west winds
expected across the area along and behind the Pacific front
Thursday. Winds across western NM will not be as strong as Wednesday
but will be as strong if not a touch stronger across central and
eastern NM. MOS guidance shows potential for 50 mph wind gusts
across northeast and east central NM Thursday afternoon and early
evening. As a result, another day of a higher risk for rapid fire
spread is expected for most areas with the focus across central and
eastern NM. Despite slightly cooler temperatures, minimum relative
humidity values will be a touch lower along and east of the central
mountain chain Thursday due to downsloping effects

As the upper low moves northeast over the northern Great Plains
Thursday night into Friday morning, it will send a backdoor front
with some gusty north winds through eastern NM. Longwave troughing
remains north and west of New Mexico Friday into next weekend. Upper
and mid level westerly flow will help to quickly mix out the
backdoor front Friday with breezy southwest and west winds each
afternoon Friday-Sunday. Winds look to be strong enough for rapid
fire spread across the highlands of northeast NM at the minimum
Friday. Precip chances could return to northern areas early next
week as upper level flow tries to back in response to an potential
approaching new upper shortwave over southern CA and AZ among the
overall longwave troughing. Temperatures will be above average by 5
to 15 degrees Wednesday before gradually cooling down to near
average late this week into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Increasing mid level clouds with some low clouds and sprinkles
across far southeast NM, including KROW, this morning. MVFR
ceilings this morning should remain on the caprock south and east
of KROW. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing across the higher terrain of western and central NM
midday moving into the nearby lower elevations during the
afternoon hours. Showers and storms will produce little rainfall
(outside of small wetting footprints across the peaks of the
southwest and south central mountains), erratic wind gusts up to
50 mph, and patchy areas of blowing dust. PROB30 at KGUP since
confidence in gusty and erratic winds from nearby showers and
storms is higher. KABQ, KAEG, and KSAF could see gusty outflow
winds from this activity during the late afternoon and early
evening hours. Any shower and thunderstorm activity across the
area tapers off around to just after sunset with gradually
clearing skies for most. MVFR ceilings developing across southeast
late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Ceilings across the
lower Pecos River Valley, including KROW, could briefly drop to
IFR category.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 148 AM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

Slightly higher mid level and low level moisture across the state
Monday will result in mostly dry gusty showers and thunderstorms
across western and central NM. Some wetter showers and thunderstorms
across the peaks of the southwest and south central high terrain
with rainfall amounts of 0.2 to 0.3 in the heaviest cores. Dry
lightning across central areas could result in future fire starts.
Warmer with light south and southwest winds areawide and some
isolated dry and gusty showers across the central high terrain
Tuesday. Gusty southwest winds Wednesday as an system moves into the
western U.S. These stronger winds combined with minimum relative
humidity values in the upper single digits to low teens will result
in the high potential for critical fire weather conditions across
much of northern and central New Mexico outside of the mountain
peaks. Poor humidity recoveries, especially along and east of the
central mountain chain, Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The
system moves across the intermountain West Thursday resulting in
gusty west winds, continued very low relative humidity values, and
another day of critical fire weather conditions, with central and
eastern New Mexico being favored. Southwest and west winds remain
elevated Friday through next weekend among slightly cooler
temperatures and slightly higher relative humidity values in the
low to mid teens. Winds look to be strong enough across at least
the Northeast and Central Highlands, and West Central Basin and
Range for another day of critical fire weather conditions Friday.
Low precipitation chances look to arrive across far northern areas
early next week as a new storm digs south over southern
California and Arizona.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  77  44  79  46 /   5   0   5   0
Dulce...........................  73  31  76  38 /   5   5  10   5
Cuba............................  70  39  74  43 /  10  10  20  10
Gallup..........................  72  35  75  36 /  30  10  10   0
El Morro........................  67  39  72  40 /  40  20  10   5
Grants..........................  72  36  76  37 /  40  20  20   5
Quemado.........................  68  40  73  39 /  60  20   5   0
Magdalena.......................  68  45  74  46 /  50  30  10   5
Datil...........................  65  41  71  41 /  60  30  10   5
Reserve.........................  74  37  78  36 /  50  10   0   0
Glenwood........................  80  41  83  41 /  40  10   0   0
Chama...........................  67  34  70  37 /  10   5  20  10
Los Alamos......................  69  45  73  49 /  20  10  20  10
Pecos...........................  70  39  75  43 /  40  20  30  20
Cerro/Questa....................  68  39  72  43 /  10  10  20  10
Red River.......................  60  34  63  38 /  20  10  20  10
Angel Fire......................  65  26  69  30 /  20  10  20  20
Taos............................  72  33  76  37 /  20  10  20  10
Mora............................  70  37  74  41 /  30  20  20  20
Espanola........................  76  40  81  44 /  20  10  20  10
Santa Fe........................  70  45  75  47 /  30  20  20  10
Santa Fe Airport................  73  41  77  45 /  30  20  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  75  51  80  54 /  20  20  10   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  76  47  82  51 /  20  20  10   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  78  45  84  49 /  20  20  10   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  77  48  81  51 /  20  20  10   5
Belen...........................  78  42  83  46 /  30  20  10   5
Bernalillo......................  78  47  83  51 /  20  20  10   5
Bosque Farms....................  78  41  83  45 /  30  20  10   5
Corrales........................  78  47  83  51 /  20  20  10   5
Los Lunas.......................  78  43  83  46 /  30  20  10   5
Placitas........................  73  48  78  52 /  20  20  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  77  48  82  51 /  20  10  10   5
Socorro.........................  78  47  84  49 /  40  20  10   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  69  45  74  49 /  30  20  10  10
Tijeras.........................  70  45  76  49 /  30  20  10  10
Edgewood........................  72  40  77  46 /  30  20  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  73  34  78  41 /  30  20  10   5
Clines Corners..................  68  41  74  44 /  40  30  20   5
Mountainair.....................  72  42  76  45 /  40  30  10   5
Gran Quivira....................  70  42  75  46 /  50  30  10   5
Carrizozo.......................  73  47  77  51 /  40  20  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  67  44  71  48 /  50  20  20   5
Capulin.........................  70  37  75  42 /   0   5  10   5
Raton...........................  74  35  79  40 /   5   5  20   5
Springer........................  75  35  81  40 /  10  10  10   5
Las Vegas.......................  70  39  76  43 /  30  20  20  10
Clayton.........................  75  44  81  49 /   0   5   5   0
Roy.............................  72  39  79  46 /  10  20  10  10
Conchas.........................  78  45  87  49 /  20  20  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  73  43  82  49 /  30  20  10   5
Tucumcari.......................  77  47  87  52 /  20  20   5   5
Clovis..........................  71  48  84  52 /  20  20  10  10
Portales........................  71  48  85  51 /  20  20   5   5
Fort Sumner.....................  74  47  85  48 /  20  20  10   5
Roswell.........................  74  50  85  52 /  20  10  20   5
Picacho.........................  72  44  81  49 /  40  20  20   5
Elk.............................  72  41  79  46 /  40  20  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71