133
FXUS65 KABQ 191140 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
540 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 427 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2025

- Breezy to windy conditions are expected today and again Monday
  along and east of the Central Mountain Chain. Winds will be
  strongest on Monday where gusts between 50 and 60 mph near
  Clines Corners will create hazardous crosswinds for high profile
  vehicles.

- A Pacific storm system will introduce low chances for light
  precipitation across western and northern areas of New Mexico
  Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 121 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Northwest flow aloft is in place over NM early this morning while a
vigorous upper trough moves toward the British Columbia coast and a
separate cut-off low spins over open Pacific waters west of the
Baja peninsula. At the surface a cold front is sliding into
eastern NM, but this is progged to lose momentum as it tries to
advance west toward the central mountain chain. The front will
stall before dawn, and a lee-side surface trough will quickly
develop in its place with southwesterlies being established over
northeastern NM through mid to late morning. The flow aloft will
back more westerly with speeds of 15 to 25 kt persisting through
the afternoon, and breezy to windy conditions (occasional gusts of
25 to 35 mph) will develop in northeastern NM as diurnal mixing
ensues. Meanwhile, the western half of NM will observe light
breezes today. Temperatures in the 70`s will be common this
afternoon with cooler readings in the 60`s in the mountains,
readings that are within a few degrees of normal.

Into tonight breezes will try to subside after sunset, but the
boundary layer will struggle to decouple as the lee-side surface
trough gradient strengthens a bit. The more pressing feature will be
the BC trough that will be encroaching upon the central Rockies.
This will strengthen the westerlies aloft considerably over northern
NM late tonight into Monday morning with model cross sections
showing 50-70 kt of flow just above and downwind (east) of the
Sangre de Cristos by 1200UTC Monday. Mountain wave indicators are
starting to stand out more as well with downslope omega plunges,
stable temperature lapse rates, and kinks in the isentropes. This
poses concerns for high winds along the peaks onto the east slopes
of the Sangre de Cristos and also the central highlands Monday where
a High Wind Watch is being issued. Even the western half of NM
will turn breezy on Monday. Temperatures will warm in all areas on
Monday afternoon, but especially in the eastern zones due to
compressional warming from the downslope winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 121 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2025

The trough will move off of the Rockies and into the northern Great
Plains by Monday evening, pushing into the Great Lakes by Tuesday
morning. A backdoor front will follow behind this departing feature,
entering the eastern half of NM. This will allow temperatures to run
a bit cooler into Tuesday, even as a ridge aloft briefly swells up
over the southwestern states. The ridge will host a much lighter
wind field, and some high cirrus overarching the ridge will be
the most noteworthy thing about the weather Tuesday afternoon.

The cut-off low over the eastern Pacific will start to migrate into
southern CA Tuesday night into Wednesday. A plume of subtropical
moisture still looks to be drawn into the Gulf of CA and Sonora
before getting substantially modified and diffused farther northeast
into Chihuahua and NM. This will limit available moisture for
precipitation for NM, and it also appears the track of the cut-off
low has shifted a bit farther north and slowed a bit, essentially
delaying and reducing precipitation prospects for Wednesday.
Still, a few light showers or stray thunderstorms would be
possible in west central high terrain areas Wednesday afternoon.
The low would then move just northwest of the Four Corners late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning before trekking across CO
through the afternoon. Light rain and high mountain flurries would
favor northwestern NM through Thursday morning before starting to
disperse in the afternoon. Breezy conditions would also develop
into Thursday afternoon as the low crosses just to our north, and
temperatures would dip back to, if not slightly below, normal.

Cooler, drier northwest flow aloft will be the rule on Friday as the
low shifts into KS and OK, and a backdoor surface front will have
invaded eastern NM zones. This will bring Friday`s daytime highs
down to normal or a few degrees below for all of the forecast area.
Shortwave ridging early on Saturday will quickly get suppressed by
the next incoming Pacific trough. Southerly and westerly surface
breezes would resume Saturday, veering a bit and increasing in speed
on Sunday as the perturbed flow aloft continues overtaking the
western and central ConUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Just a few high, fair weather cirrus clouds are forecast to move
across northern and central New Mexico through the day today.
Breezy conditions will develop in much of eastern New Mexico with
southwesterly gusts of 25-35 kt being common through the
afternoon. Lighter breezes will prevail in the western half of the
state today. Breezy conditions will try to settle after sunset
this evening, but will have difficulty with occasional gusts of
20-25 kt still possible in eastern areas. A major increase in
winds aloft will arrive before midnight, impacting the Sangre de
Cristos and to some extent the remainder of the central mountain
chain through the night and into Monday morning. Wind speeds of
50-60 kt will be found near the peaks of the Sangre de Cristos
along with potential mountain wave activity tonight and low level
wind shear down in the lower elevations to the east KRTN, KLVS,
KSXU, and KSRR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 121 AM MDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Breezy to windy conditions will develop today and Monday, primarily
in the eastern half of NM. Today`s winds, driven mostly by a strong
lee-side surface trough, will occasionally gust to 30 to 35 mph
and will be accompanied by fairly seasonable temperatures and
minimum RH in the 15-30% range. This would suggest elevated or
marginally critical fire weather conditions, but available Energy
Release Component data suggests low values in a climatologically
downward trending part of the year. Current soil moisture
assessments in eastern NM from the Land Information Systems
satellite data does show lower moisture in the eastern plains due
to an absence of appreciable widespread rainfall there recently.
This might suggest 1-hour fuels would be susceptible to more rapid
fire growth if exposed, but no watch or warning statements are
planned for either today or Monday. Temperatures will increase on
Monday, reducing RH closer to a 10-18% range with the strongest
winds being juxtaposed over the central mountain chain and east
central plains of Torrance, Guadalupe, and portions of Quay
counties. Gusts of 40 to perhaps 60 mph will be observed Monday.
Again, the main fire weather concerns on Monday would likely be
in the 1-hour fuel areas where grasses would potentially be more
ripe for fire spread.

After dry and relatively tranquil weather on Tuesday, light and
scant precipitation chances reappear Wednesday into Thursday as a
low pressure system crosses just north of NM. Wetting or soaking
rainfall potential is very low with most locales projected to
receive less than 0.1" of liquid equivalent. Breezes look to
increase Saturday into next Sunday with potentially windier
conditions arriving Monday, Oct 27.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  71  40  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  69  30  66  26 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  69  37  67  33 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  72  35  70  31 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  71  38  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  76  36  73  33 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  74  36  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  72  44  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  72  38  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  77  37  79  37 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  80  43  82  42 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  64  32  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  67  42  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  66  44  68  33 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  65  40  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  61  32  61  26 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  63  31  62  20 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  68  35  68  30 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  70  41  67  30 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  73  38  75  35 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  67  42  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  69  38  72  34 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  72  47  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  75  43  77  41 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  77  41  79  40 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  75  44  77  41 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  77  39  80  37 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  75  43  78  38 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  76  39  79  36 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  76  43  79  39 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  76  40  79  38 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  72  45  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  75  44  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  79  44  84  44 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  67  42  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  71  40  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  71  38  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  72  37  73  30 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  68  41  68  32 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  70  41  72  34 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  70  40  73  34 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  72  49  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  67  49  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  70  41  70  28 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  73  39  74  29 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  77  39  76  31 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  70  44  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  72  47  78  34 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  73  43  78  33 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  78  51  84  38 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  75  48  78  37 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  75  50  83  36 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  75  50  84  40 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  76  51  85  40 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  72  46  83  39 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  77  46  88  44 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  78  49  83  41 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  76  49  81  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon for
NMZ213-214-223.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52